Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Stolen bases, stolen runs

I'll soon be updating the charts of offensive performance to take into account some minor glitches, but they shouldn't change the results in any significant way.

Meanwhile, I'd like to note what the run values say about the IBL's high steal rate - three times as high as in the majors. A stolen base was worth just 9.1% of a run. But a time caught stealing cost the team 28.1% of a run, plus 15.6% of a run for the out it created, for a total of 43.7% of a run!

The season's 457 steals were therefore worth about 41.4 runs. But the 110 times caught stealing cost teams 48.1 runs. So overall, steal attempts cost IBL teams about 6.7 runs over the season.

Just goes to show that the steal rate was way too high. I'll take a look some time at whether any players had positive net steal values.

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